Bonds & Stocks
Treasuries extended their selloff and equities faltered as traders priced the possibility of fewer interest-rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve. Treasury 10-year yields rose to a four-month high to about 4.37%, adding to a 10 basis-point jump from Monday, when data showed an expansion in US manufacturing for the first time since September 2022. The print has forced traders to dial back bets on Fed policy easing, with fewer than three rate cuts now priced for this year. They also see a good chance of a delay to policy easing, with odds of a June cut briefly slipping below 50% on Monday.
Economy
Supply and demand for labor is coming into better balance as the number of job openings continues to drop. But the pace of decline has slowed, and revisions to past months’ data show the decline has been smoother than reported. A drop in excess demand for labor, paired with workers’ lack of confidence that they can find new jobs at higher wages, will help alleviate wage pressures in months ahead. Here’s what we expect in the April 2 release: We estimate data will show 8.7 million job openings in February, down from 8.86 million in January and a peak of nearly 12.2 million in March 2022.
World
Iran vowed revenge on Israel after blaming it for a deadly air strike on its embassy in Syria — a rare direct confrontation in the adversaries’ escalating conflict over the war in Gaza.
Israel “will be punished. We will make them regret their crime,” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Tuesday, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. The strike in Damascus late Monday destroyed the consulate building and killed at least 13 people including seven Iranian military personnel and six Syrian nationals, according to Iranian state media.