Bonds & Stocks
Stocks kicked off the week on a cautious note, with traders refraining from making any significant bets ahead of key economic data and meetings from major central banks that will test the market’s optimism on rate cuts in 2024. In less than 24 hours, Wall Street will get a sense on whether the disinflation trend is continuing, with the consumer price index for November. The report will be released a day before the last scheduled Federal Reserve decision of 2023, with officials widely expected to hold rates and announce their Summary of Economic Projections.
Economy
The Dec. 12-13 FOMC meeting (Tues.-Wed.) could be a pivotal one, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals what might be called a readiness to get ready to talk about rate cuts — not about their timing, but an abstract discussion of what conditions might warrant a cut. It would be a sharp contrast to the last meeting, when Powell said cuts weren’t even discussed.
World
China’s independent refiners have benefited for years from cheap Venezuelan oil. Now, there’s unwelcome competition. Since Washington suspended sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in October, large trading houses have begun circling. Caracas’ crude has also caught the attention of Asia’s other major buyer, India — back after a hiatus of more than three years.