Bonds & Stocks
Stocks fell after closing at another record, with traders awaiting results from two of the tech behemoths that have powered the market rally from the bottom amid the artificial-intelligence excitement. The stakes are high for Microsoft Corp. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. — two of the biggest players in AI-related software — which report results after the closing bell. Recent trading has shown that big tech continued to drive the market, with the heavy concentration being cited by some as a warning flag. The dominance of the 10 biggest stocks is increasingly drawing similarities with the dot-com bubble, raising the risk of a selloff, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. quantitative strategists.
Economy
The US Treasury reduced its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter, a move unexpected by many dealers, helping stoke rallies in bonds and stocks Monday. The Treasury Department said that it now estimates $760 billion in net borrowing for January-through-March, down from a previous prediction of $816 billion released in late October. US debt managers kept their estimate for the Treasury’s cash balance for the end of March at $750 billion.
World
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth this year on better-than-expected expansion in the US and fiscal stimulus in China, while warning of risks from wars and inflation. The world economy will grow 3.1% this year, up from 2.9% seen in October, the Washington-based institution said in its quarterly World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. The fund kept its 2025 forecast unchanged at 3.2%. Tighter central-bank policy to fight inflation and public-spending cuts in some countries are among the reasons why growth is expected to be slower than in the two decades before the pandemic, when it averaged 3.8%.