Bonds & Stocks
Stocks, bonds and the dollar saw small moves at the start of a busy week for major central banks, with an advance in Brent oil to around $95 dollars adding to inflation concerns. The S&P 500 edged lower, following Friday’s slide. Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Federal Reserve moves, remained above 5%. The greenback fluctuated. Oil climbed toward its highest since November, extending a rally that has been driven by resilient demand and supply curbs from OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Economy
Bloomberg Economics expects the FOMC to hold rates steady at its Sept. 19-20 meeting, a move that even the most hawkish Federal Reserve officials have long telegraphed. More consequential will be clues on the future rate path in the updated Summary of Economic Projections. We expect the dot plot to indicate another hike before year-end, though it will be a close call.
World
Iran released five Americans as part of a prisoner-swap deal Washington hopes will ease tension in the Middle East and could eventually lead to a resumption of talks to reverse Tehran’s nuclear work. The detainees left Tehran on Monday around 4:30 p.m. local time on a Qatari plane headed for Doha, Iranian state media said. They are expected to then be handed over to US officials. Five Iranians imprisoned in America are also set to be freed.