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Daily Market Commentary

December 12, 2025

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December 12, 2025

Bonds & Stocks
US stock futures were held back once again by a retreat in technology shares on a day when global gauges had record highs in their sights. The Nasdaq 100 was set to drop 0.5% at the open. Broadcom Inc. fell more than 6% in premarket trading after its sales outlook fell short of lofty expectations. S&P 500 futures were slightly weaker after the index notched a record close in the previous session. By contrast, gauges for US blue-chip and small-cap stocks were poised to extend their push into fresh highs. The diverging fortunes for US equities highlight the broadening of a rally that has put the S&P 500 on track for a third successive year of gains.

Economy
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he is projecting more interest-rate cuts for 2026, but dissented against a rate cut this week because he wanted to wait for more data on inflation. Goolsbee explained his vote, saying he felt the more prudent course. Goolsbee explained his vote, saying he felt the more prudent course would have been to wait for more information, given that inflation has been above the target for four and a half years. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson took a more dovish tack, saying she was still a little more concerned about labor market weakness than about upside risks to inflation, and sees a decent chance that inflation will come down next year.

World
Venezuela faces a fresh financial shock after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off its coast, a move that could choke off one of the few remaining revenue streams for the nation. The socialist-run country’s economy has been strained since Donald Trump tightened oil-trading restrictions earlier this year. The government’s supply of dollars, almost all tied to crude sales, had already fallen 30% in the first ten months of 2025. The squeeze has pressured the exchange rate and driven up prices, with annual inflation expected to top 400% by year’s-end, according to private estimates from local economists. A continued policy of seizures would cause a steep decline in Venezuela's import capacity, plunging the country into a new recession.

The information represented herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable. Neither the information presented nor opinions expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any security. And it is not intended to guide the investor on which securities to buy, or when to buy or sell.