Daily Market Commentary

The latest reading on the US labor market did little to sway markets ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with stocks, bonds and the dollar showing small moves as traders watched the latest developments in the Middle East conflict.

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Weak economic data and concerns about an escalation of risks in the Middle East drove stocks down as bonds rose, with traders gearing up for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Oil climbed.

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A relative sense of calm returned to global markets on Monday, with stocks rebounding and oil sinking alongside gold as fears subsided that Israel’s war against Iran would escalate into a wider conflict in the Middle East. 

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Treasuries headed for their best week of performance since April, driven by strong auctions and cooling inflation data.

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The 30-year Treasury auction is set to take place on Thursday, with investors watching closely for signs of demand amid concerns over spiraling deficits and the impact of President Trump's tax bill, which by some projections will add trillions of dollars to US budget gaps, potentially requiring more bond issuance to finance the spending.

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Treasuries fell, led by the long end, as traders braced for an acceleration in US inflation and an auction of 10-year bonds. 

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Wall Street investors closely monitoring trade discussions between the US and China drove Treasuries higher, with a $58 billion bond auction set to test the appetite for American securities amid President Trump’s fast-evolving tariff war.

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Following a rally that put the S&P 500 just about 2% away from its record, the American equity benchmark was little changed on Monday. Treasuries traded off their session highs.

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Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The declines on Friday pushed yields across maturities higher by at least five basis points.

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Following the recent Treasury rally, bonds barely budged. An unexpected jump in jobless claims reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year, with swap traders pricing the first move in September. The dollar fell.

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Bond yields fell across curve after data showed hiring decelerated to the slowest pace in two years. The dollar slipped. The S&P 500 edged up.

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Equities barely budged, with the S&P 500 wavering after the OECD slashed its global forecasts, saying combative tariff policies have tipped the world economy into a downturn.

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Wall Street kicked off the week on the back foot, with stocks, bonds and the dollar falling amid renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.

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Following a torrid rally that put the S&P 500 on track for its best May gain since 1990, the gauge lost steam, dropping 0.4% on Friday. 

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US stocks climbed Thursday morning as a US court blocked the bulk of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs and an upbeat earnings readout from artificial intelligence darling Nvidia Corp. fueled risk appetite.

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Just hours ahead of results from the world’s most-valuable chipmaker, the S&P 500 eked out gains. Nvidia, which has surged more than 40% from its April low, edged up on Wednesday.

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Wall Street stocks rose amid optimism about US-EU trade negotiations, with the S&P 500 up about 1% and Nvidia Corp. pacing gains in megacaps.

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From the US to Japan, long-term borrowing costs for the world’s biggest economies have surged as investors question the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits.

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US stocks are set to extend a retreat, with traders nervous about rising bond yields as House lawmakers debated tax cuts at the center of the Trump administration’s policy agenda. The dollar also fell.

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House Republicans were still unable to reach a deal on Tuesday over the divisive state and local tax deduction as President Donald Trump met with lawmakers on Capitol Hill to discuss moving his agenda forward.

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Long-dated Treasuries fell on Monday as investor attention turned to the US’ ballooning debt after Moody’s Ratings stripped the nation of its last top credit rating. 

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A rally that drove stocks to one of their best weeks in 2025 lost steam on Friday after the latest round of data failed to assuage investors worried about the outlook for the world’s largest economy amid President Donald Trump’s trade war.

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Wall Street traders sent bond yields lower after tame inflation data combined with lackluster readings on retail and manufacturing bolstered the case for Fed rate cuts this year.

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Wall Street’s epic rebound from April’s meltdown is showing some signs of exhaustion amid speculation the market has run too fast amid risks stemming from a trade war to an economic slowdown and sticky inflation.

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US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.

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In the throes of April’s market chaos, one London fund manager found a relatively simple and cheap way to unload its unwanted bonds. 

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Wall Street’s risk-off mode prevailed in the countdown to the Federal Reserve decision, with stocks falling as disappointing corporate and economic signals fueled concern about the repercussions of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

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A historic stock-market run came to a halt as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks provided little relief to investors bracing for the impacts of his trade war on the economy and corporate earnings.

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US bond investors have been piling into bets that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will slow the world’s largest economy and force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US Treasury market is telegraphing that the Federal Reserve ought to lower interest rates. 

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US Treasuries slipped, trimming a monthly gain in April, as mixed economic data muddled the path for the Federal Reserve to meet trader expectations by cutting interest rates at least three times by year-end.

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Wall Street traders bracing for a deluge of corporate earnings and key economic data sent stocks higher on Monday as they waited for more insights on President Donald Trump’s trade war. A fifth straight advance in the S&P 500 is the longest since November.

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A solid week on Wall Street is ending on a quieter note, with stocks churning as investors digested the gains of the past few sessions amid conflicting signals on whether the US-China trade spat is de-escalating.

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US stock futures fluctuated after back-to-back gains on Wall Street as investors scaled back their expectations of quick progress in the US-China trade dispute. 

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Wall Street traders are going all-in on risky bets that Donald Trump is dialing down his combative agenda after the White House struck a softer tone on trade and Federal Reserve independence, sending stocks and bonds rallying.

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An anxious calm was restored on Wall Street following Monday’s jarring losses, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar steadying even as haven-seeking traders sent gold to a record high amid concern over White House hostility toward Jerome Powell.

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US stocks, longer-dated Treasuries, and the dollar fell as traders reacted to President Donald Trump's threats to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

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The S&P 500 Index has settled into an uneasy calm after a period of high volatility, but there is a sense of foreboding on Wall Street that the calm won't last.

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US Treasuries fell, snapping three days of gains, as traders pared bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to keeping inflation in check.

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The WTO cut its forecast for this year, saying trade would decline by 0.2% in 2025, almost three percentage points lower than it would have been without the US-led trade war. 

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Stocks edged up as solid results from big banks offset news pointing to an escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. 

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Wall Street traders trying to look past all the back-and-forth around tariffs drove stocks higher as President Donald Trump’s temporary pause on electronics spurred a rally in the world’s largest tech companies. Treasuries rebounded after a selloff that cast doubt on their status as the ultimate haven. The dollar halted a four-day slide.

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Treasuries hold gains across a flatter curve, with long-end yields down about 3bp near session lows. S&P 500 futures recoup about 0.7% of Thursday’s nearly 3.5% cash-market slump as quarterly earnings season begins with results from several big banks.

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Risk appetites vanished on Wall Street after the biggest burst of buying in years, with stocks falling even after subdued inflation data extended a bounce in Treasuries. The S&P 500 retraced about a quarter of Wednesday’s surge as investors braced for a potentially protracted period of global trade hostility.

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The exodus from longer-dated US Treasuries sent yields surging, fueling the biggest selloff since 2020 in what’s supposed to be the world’s safest assets. The yield on 30-year Treasuries soared 15 basis points to over 4.9% early in the US trading day.

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Stocks climbed after a selloff that chopped trillions of dollars from equity values after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s the potential for advantageous trade deals with major US trading partners.

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A stock selling stampede abated as traders boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts amid economic fears just days ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline for reciprocal tariffs to take effect.

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Stocks tumbled around the world, bonds surged and oil hit a four-year low, with China stepping up its the fight against President Donald Trump’s trade war to intensify concerns about the economy despite signs of a solid jobs market.

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Bond traders have lifted bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid concern that Donald Trump’s trade war will backfire on the US economy, sending the yield on benchmark Treasuries toward the closely-watched 4% level.

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US Treasuries added to their recent rally-sending the five-year note’s yield to the lowest level since October-as global trade tensions rose ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. 

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Treasury yields fell as markets worried about the potential hit to economic growth from President Donald Trump’s next round of tariffs Benchmark 10-year yields were down about 4 basis points to roughly 4.17% on Tuesday, and touched the lowest level since March 11 after a Washington Post report that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on at least most US imports.

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Stocks dropped around the world, bonds climbed and gold hit another record high, with traders bracing for President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement that’s heightening concerns of a wider trade war as the economy shows signs of slowing.

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Stocks are down a little and bonds rates are down a little also after data that showed a pick-up in inflation and weaker-than-estimated spending, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s challenges in navigating the current economic environment.

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Stocks fell after the US pushed ahead with tariffs on automakers, reinforcing concern about a widening trade war that outweighed data showing faster-than-estimated growth in the world’s largest economy.

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A rally in stocks wavered as concerns about the economic impacts of a trade war sapped market liquidity, leaving traders unwilling to take on too much risk.

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Stocks extended a rebound from one of the fastest slides on record, with traders gearing up for a key reading on consumer confidence for clues on the health of the economy amid concerns about the impact of US tariffs on inflation.

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US stock futures rallied, with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index surging 1.4%, as traders snapped up beaten-down tech shares and took optimism from signs that US tariffs may be more targeted. S&P 500 contacts also rose more than 1%.

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Another selloff in several megacaps drove the Nasdaq 100 toward its longest streak of weekly losses since May 2022, with stocks also hit by weaker-than-estimated outlooks from bellwethers across industries.

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Stocks lost steam on the eve of a massive expiration of options on Wall Street, while Treasury yields dropped on speculation the Federal Reserve remains on a path toward lower interest rates.

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US government debt has returned 2.4% so far this year, pushing yields to their 2025 lows as the equity market sold off and President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda drew reprisals from trade partners — which led to forecasts for less economic growth and a resurgence of inflation.

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Stocks fell after a back-to-back rally and bond yields rose alongside the dollar, with traders gearing up for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision that will likely bring an assessment of how President Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the economy.

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Wall Street traders fearing a bigger pullback in consumer spending got some relief from a mixed retail sales report, with stocks rebounding from session lows and short-term bonds falling.

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Equities rebounded after a selloff that drove the S&P 500 down 10% from its all-time high, though American equities were still poised for a fourth week of losses, the longest such stretch since August.

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Another downside surprise in inflation brought a degree of relief to Wall Street, though stocks fell and bond yields rose with uncertainty running high around the potential economic impacts of a trade war.

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Treasuries rallied as President Donald Trump’s comments on Sunday that the US economy is facing “a period of transition” added to concern that an economic slowdown could be just around the corner.

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Stocks wiped out gains and bond yields fell after the latest jobs figures showed a labor market that continues to moderate.

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A selloff in technology shares dragged down the equity market, while uncertainties about the impacts of a trade war on the economy continued to weigh on sentiment.

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Bonds extended this year’s rally and stocks fluctuated after the latest economic data pointed to a further slowdown in the labor market, with traders keeping a close eye on the latest developments on tariffs.

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Stocks got hammered across the board as concerns about the impacts of a trade war on the global economy spurred a flight to short-term bonds, gold and haven currencies.

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Dip buyers drove a rebound in stocks after a February slide, though sentiment remained fragile with long-promised tariffs on top US trading partners scheduled to take effect Tuesday.

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Treasury yields fell after the latest reading on US inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will have room to cut interest rates at least twice this year.

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Treasuries slipped as traders awaited economic data from the US for further signs that growth is flagging.

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US stock futures pointed to a strong open on Wall Street ahead of key earnings from Nvidia Corp. that could help reignite the artificial intelligence-driven rally.

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Treasuries extended this month’s rally, with 10-year yields falling to the lowest levels in 2025.

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Stocks rebounded after the worst slide this year, with traders gearing up for Nvidia Corp's earnings and key inflation data later this week.

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Stocks stabilized on Friday as investors braced for economic data that may give insights into the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

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US stocks retreated from a disappointing forecast from Walmart Inc. and mixed corporate results. 

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Europe’s equity rally paused and bonds extended their slide after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats stoked concern about a widening trade war.

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The world’s biggest bond market rallied as a weak reading on retail sales prompted a slight increase in bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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Treasuries edged higher after their biggest selloff since December as investors awaited the latest inflation snapshot for clues on the path of US interest rates following Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected print.

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Stocks got hit and bond yields soared as traders pushed out bets on the next Federal Reserve rate cut to December amid strong inflation. Every major group in the S&P 500 fell, with the benchmark down about 1%.

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Stocks fell and bond yields rose as traders prepared for Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress, where he's expected to signal the economy is in good shape and the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates. 

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Open interest in Treasury futures increased across tenors in Friday’s selloff, sparked by January jobs data, particularly in 5- and 10-year contracts, suggesting new short positions were set. Mar25 and Dec25 SOFR futures also saw large open-interest increases as prices fell.

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Treasury yields climbed and stocks wavered after the latest jobs report showed a moderating -yet healthy labor market - that will  likely make the Federal Reserve hold rates steady for now. 

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Stocks rose ahead of Amazon's earnings and Friday's jobs data, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 adding 0.3%. Investors are cautious about Amazon's results due to disappointing figures from Alphabet and Microsoft, and are also watching the company's artificial intelligence spending plans.

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Trump declared victory while hinting that tough negotiations are still ahead.

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US factory activity expanded last month for the first time since 2022 as orders ramped up and production quickened, pointing to a brighter manufacturing outlook.

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Stocks are ending a volatile week on a relatively positive note after solid forecasts from tech heavyweights eased concern about the outlook for the industry that has powered the bull market. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%.The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.52%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%.

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Stocks rose after data showed the US economy remains solid, with big tech leading gains. The US economy grew 2.3% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations, and economists believe the economy is "doing just fine" and will support risk assets.

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Stock traders took some risk off the table ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with a trio of tech heavyweights kicking off the megacap earnings season just days after DeepSeek roiled markets.The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.52% The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.

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Stocks tried to stabilize after a selloff that shook markets around the globe, with traders gearing up for the start of the megacap earnings season and Federal Reserve decision on rates. The S&P 500 added 0.2%.The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%. A Bloomberg gauge of the Magnificent Seven megacaps climbed 0.7%. The Russell 2000 was little changed.

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Wall Street had a rough start to the week on concern that a cheaper artificial intelligence-model from China could threaten the dominance of US technology, spurring a selloff in stocks and a flight to haven assets. From New York to London and Tokyo, equities got hammered, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 down 3.1%.

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Equities hovered near all-time highs on Friday, with the S&P 500 climbing over 2% this week. That was after President Donald Trump talked up policies to boost economic growth and lower taxes, while appearing to soften his stance toward tariffs on China.

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US stocks are set to open lower after Nvidia Corp.’s main supplier of high-bandwidth memory gave a cautious spending outlook, which sent global chipmaker shares lower. Nvidia slipped 1.6% in the premarket and ASML Holding NV lost more than 4%.

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The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%. A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps gained 1%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.1%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.57%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.

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US stock futures, Treasuries and the dollar all gained as traders chose to focus on the prospects for economic growth and corporate profits under President Donald Trump.

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US stocks rise on Friday as the revival of Federal Reserve policy-easing bets pushed Treasury yields lower.

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Concern over the debt impact of Donald Trump’s economic agenda has percolated through the market. 

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US consumer prices rose in December by less than forecast after months of faster underlying inflation persuaded the Federal Reserve to signal a pause in interest-rate cuts.

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Another solid jobs report suggests the US labor market is stabilizing, limiting the scope for Fed rate cuts this year and propelling US Treasury yields to fresh highs.

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Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a survey of economists.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said a slower approach to adjusting interest rates is merited now as officials confront “considerable uncertainty” over the US economic outlook.

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A cohort of about 20 Republican House members from New York, New Jersey and California was invited to meet with President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate Saturday ahead of a looming fight over an extension of his 2017 tax cuts.

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High-frequency data show a broad-based improvement in hiring across most sectors in December.

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President-elect Donald Trump’s fast-approaching inauguration means that 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for global trade.

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Initial applications for US unemployment capped 2024 at an eight-month low, reflecting the relatively muted levels of job cuts in a labor market that has remained surprisingly resilient.

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