Bonds & Stocks
Early losses in Treasuries were quickly erased after Washington Post report detailing potential for Trump tariff plan to cover only “critical imports.” The dollar dropped sharply while Treasuries rose more gradually, leaving yields richer across maturities after an early cheapening move that sent long-end yields to a 14-month high.
Economy
High-frequency data show a broad-based improvement in hiring across most sectors in December. Bloomberg Economics preliminarily estimates December’s nonfarm payrolls to increase by 268k – higher than the current consensus, and an acceleration from November’s solid print.
World
While almost all major economies should see monetary easing during the coming year, the pace is likely to slow. Bloomberg Economics projects its aggregate measure of advanced-world interest rates to drop just 72 basis points in 2025, less than it did in 2024.