Bonds & Stocks
Stocks wavered ahead of earnings from two of the world’s biggest spenders on artificial intelligence and a US interest-rate decision where markets still see room for a hike. Brent rallied toward $90 a barrel. S&P 500 futures were little changed. Those for the Nasdaq 100 fluctuated after the latest selloff in chipmakers left the index on the brink of a technical correction.
Economy
The July FOMC meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain policy decisions in recent memory. Markets see a one-in-three chance that Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers his first rate hike, reflecting uncertainty over how his hawkish rhetoric and new approach to monetary policy will translate into action. Our baseline forecast is for the labor market to soften in coming months as temporary World Cup hiring and spending unwind.
World
Public services in the UK face a £24 billion ($31.9 billion) hit in the current parliamentary term as higher energy prices and inflation eat into departmental budgets, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned. It urged Burnham not to borrow more to fill the hole because the national debt is already unsustainably high.