Bonds & Stocks
Stocks rose at the start of a week filled with events that will be crucial in shaping sentiment as markets trade near all-time highs. Gold extended a record rally, and the dollar headed for a back-to-back loss, while Treasuries were mixed. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2% after the benchmark fell on concerns that the Federal Reserve was falling behind in supporting a cooling jobs market. Uncertainty in Japan and France adds to a torrent of US data this week that will help determine the Fed’s policy path.
Economy
US job growth in the year through March was probably far less robust than government figures currently show, underscoring a labor market that shifted into a lower gear well before the hiring slowdown this summer. Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision to show the March payrolls count was almost 800,000 less than currently estimated — or about 67,000 a month on average, with some saying the downgrade could be closer to a million. This would reinforce expectations for a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
World
China's export growth slowed to the weakest in six months as a slump in shipments to the US deepened again, with exports to the US falling 33%. Overall sales abroad rose 4.4% in August from a year earlier to $322 billion, with shipments to other markets such as Southeast Asia, the European Union, and Africa rising. China's trade surplus is still on course to exceed last year's record of almost $1 trillion, with overseas sales making up for weaker domestic demand, and the government is expected to roll out policies to boost consumption and offset pressure from soft exports.