Bonds & Stocks
US equity futures gained with the dollar as a deluge of data is seen reinforcing the picture of a buoyant economy, diverting attention from trade negotiations. Investor attention is turning from recent US tariff deals with the European Union and Japan to key indicators spanning jobs and inflation to broader economic activity.
Economy
The labor market appears to be standing firm and the unemployment rate has fallen back to its February level, before the trade war began. July nonfarm payrolls are expected to continue to defy the narrative of a fast-cooling labor market. Assuming that hiring pace is maintained for the rest of the year, the unemployment rate would edge up roughly 10 basis points per month, ending the year at 4.5%.
World
The European Union plans to reduce financial support to Ukraine by €1.5 billion after Kyiv was unable to meet all required reform milestones. Ukraine did not meet three of the 16 targets needed to get a full €4.5 billion payout under the Ukraine Facility, and has requested a partial disbursement of €3 billion. Once the process is concluded with approval by member states, this payout will mark the first partial aid package ever delivered to Kyiv.