Bonds & Stocks
Stocks are moving toward a fresh record as traders look for signs of resilience amid tariff risks, with the S&P 500 topping 6,300. Treasury yields and the dollar fell. Investors will be focused on company outlooks, including updates on spending plans related to artificial intelligence, as earnings season moves into full swing.
Economy
James van Geelen at Citrini Research recommended buying two-year Treasuries and selling US 10-year notes in response to news that President Donald Trump was likely to fire Jerome Powell. The theory behind this "macro trade" is that a new Fed chair would be more likely to fall in line with Trump's lobbying for lower interest rates, pushing down short-term yields and driving yields on long-term debt higher.
World
Britain and Germany are set to pledge new air defense systems for Ukraine as the UK government pushes for a "50-day drive" to arm Kyiv and bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The UK Ministry of Defense confirmed the UK had sent £150 million of air defense and artillery to Ukraine in the past two months, and said further commitments will be announced during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting.