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Daily Market Commentary

September 24, 2025

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September 24, 2025

Bonds & Stocks
Investors aren't pricing in higher inflation for the US despite President Donald Trump's power grab at the Federal Reserve. Market-based measures of price pressures are down from July peaks and roughly in line with their two-year average, with medium- and long-term gauges near the Fed's 2% target. The bond market's calm response to Trump's actions has been described as "kind of a puzzle" by some analysts, who note that investors seem to believe a "more normal process" of conducting monetary policy will prevail despite the current noise.

Economy
Concerns are mounting that President Donald Trump ’s $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions for high-skilled workers could choke off a talent pipeline critical to US industries. The total number of visas is unlikely to fall significantly, with the annual cap still the binding constraint. Instead, the primary impact of the fee will be to shift who gets one. It's expected the fee will reallocate visas toward higher-wage positions in sectors such as technology, finance and health care, while pushing out lower-wage positions in areas like education.

World
Taipei has unilaterally imposed semiconductor export controls on South Africa for actions that “undermined our national and public security.” Taiwan's chip curbs reflect its strategy to use economic and trade policy for diplomatic goals, with similar measures possibly being imposed on other “unfriendly” nations. The move is seen as Taipei's attempt to build an autonomous deterrent on the world stage by utilizing its position in the global chip supply chain.

The information represented herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable. Neither the information presented nor opinions expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any security. And it is not intended to guide the investor on which securities to buy, or when to buy or sell.