Bonds & Stocks
US Treasuries fell slightly due to escalating Middle East conflict, stoking fears of oil supply disruption and inflation. Treasury yields ticked higher, with 10-year yields up to 4.40%, as traders pared bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Economy
The Fed held its policy rate steady at the June FOMC meeting but the median participant revised the inflation forecast higher. Still, the distribution of member forecasts suggests some officials continue to expect what Fed Chair Jerome Powell called a “meaningful amount of inflation” in coming months. That view will likely keep the Fed cautious and on hold longer.
World
The US bombing raid on Iran's nuclear sites has set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the program hasn't been completely destroyed, and Iran's highly enriched uranium is still missing. There are signs both Trump and Khamenei may be working to avoid escalation, which means any response could be targeted and calibrated not to push the US toward attacking again.