Bonds & Stocks
The ADP Research data shows that employment at US companies fell in June for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in services payrolls that may raise concerns about a more pronounced labor market slowdown. The dollar bounced from its lowest level since 2022, while Treasuries briefly pared losses, with shorter-dated bonds outperforming, and the pound sank.
Economy
With a decline of more than 9%, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on pace for its worst year in data going back to 2005, despite boasting persistently higher yields than its Group-of-10 peers. The rates advantage was the core reason behind Markets Live’s optimism on the dollar in January. The impact of protectionist policies in Trump’s second term is reminiscent of what we saw in 2017, when Bloomberg’s dollar gauge slid 8.5% amid rising trade tensions with China.
World
The UK government has issued a red alert warning about potential sanctions evasion tied to the sale of Russian oil and gas, citing a network of trading firms used by Moscow to sidestep restrictions. The UK specifically named a group of companies who have personal relationships with Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin and were sanctioned in May.